Three issuers have filed XRP spot ETF applications. A decision is expected Q3 2026. At $0.58, XRP has partially priced this in — but approval could still mean 2–3x.
Bitwise, WisdomTree, and 21Shares all filed XRP spot ETF applications with the SEC in 2024–2025. Approval odds on prediction markets: 65%. The SEC's more permissive stance under the new administration helps.
The 2023 court ruling confirmed XRP on public exchanges is NOT a security. This is the legal clarity that makes ETF approval possible. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs set the precedent. XRP is next in line.
Bitcoin ETF saw $4.6B of inflows in month 1. Even 20% of that flowing into a smaller XRP market = $920M of new demand. At $0.58, that level of buying would likely push XRP toward $1.20–$2.00.
If the SEC rejects XRP ETF applications, expect a 15–30% immediate price drop. The 65% approval odds mean 35% rejection risk. Size your XRP position accordingly — this is a binary catalyst.
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