Expectations: Headline CPI 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% prior), Core CPI 3.1% YoY (steady). If CPI comes in lower than expected, Bitcoin rallies hard toward $67K-$68K. If it's higher than 3.2%, expect a sharp pullback. In-line prints trade sideways while markets wait for FOMC guidance.
July jobs data missed by 90,000 relative to expectations. This convinced traders the Fed might pause or cut rates sooner than previously expected. Bitcoin is now pricing in a lower-for-longer rates scenario. A hot CPI print would break this narrative and force a repricing.
PPI (Producer Price Index) measures inflation at the wholesale level. Hot PPI suggests inflation is broad-based, not just consumer-driven. This would challenge the Fed pause narrative. Expect volatility if PPI surprises higher. A miss keeps Bitcoin's low-rate bet intact.
The August 20 FOMC minutes release will reveal what Fed officials are actually thinking about rate cuts. If they signal a September cut is likely, Bitcoin rallies toward $70K. If they signal a pause, expect consolidation or pullback. This is the key event of the week.
Support: $62,000 (break here = bearish). Resistance: $65,000 (current level), $67,000-$68,000 (target if CPI is soft). Ethereum support: $1,850. Ethereum target: $2,000 (major psychological barrier). These levels will be tested this week. Position accordingly.
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