crypto
02

Treasury yields are the culprit

Rising Treasury yields (anticipation of slower Fed rate cuts) typically hurt growth-dependent risk assets, yet equities rallied. Bitcoin, sensitive to real rates, pulled back instead. Different sensitivities to the same macro signal.

crypto
03

Institutional flows matter

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their strongest inflows since April, but this came *after* the price decline, not before. Institutions bought the dip, but retail may have panicked out of the bounce to $65k.

crypto
04

The macro backdrop

CPI data (July inflation at 3.4% annually, core at 2.5%) and Fed policy uncertainty drive both equities and crypto, but with different lag times. Stocks price in long-term growth; Bitcoin prices in immediate Fed risk.

crypto
05

What this means for portfolio balance

The myth of perfect inverse correlation is dead. Crypto and equities sometimes move together, sometimes diverge. A diversified portfolio needs both, not either-or bets. Watch individual correlations, not assumptions.

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