The Fed had held its rate at 3.50%-3.75% in late July over three dissents that favored a hike. Firm data would have helped the hawks; the miss did the reverse.
Per CNBC, the 2-year Treasury note fell 8 basis points to 4.16% and the 10-year dropped 6 basis points to 4.61% as rate-hike bets eased.
A soft print does not force an easing. It takes near-term pressure to tighten off the table and revives the case for cuts later in the year.
Rate expectations do not turn on jobs alone. A hot inflation print next could pull hike odds back up even after a weak labor read.
The upcoming inflation report and Fed communication will show whether the softer path priced Friday actually holds.
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