Headline inflation eased to 3.5% in June, but core PCE (the Fed's obsession) jumped to 3.3% — 165 basis points above the 2% target. If July core PCE stays hot, rates stay higher longer.
For the first time since 2016, three FOMC members voted for rate increases at the July meeting. This signals growing doubt that inflation has cooled enough for rate cuts.
Bitcoin opened Tuesday at $63,912. If CPI/PCE miss expectations (hotter), expect a test of $62,000–$63,000 support. A beat could push toward $65,000 resistance.
Ethereum opened at $1,871. With higher beta to risk, it'll amplify macro moves. Beat = $1,900–$2,000 breakout. Miss = test of $1,800 support.
Wednesday 8:30am ET: CPI release. Friday 8:30am ET: PCE release. Both will move markets. A dovish combo (both beat) could unlock a crypto relief rally into month-end.
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