The Fed's inflation forecast rose to 3.4% core PCE for year-end, mainly driven by oil/gas supply risk. Higher inflation = delayed rate cuts. Delayed rate cuts = weaker Bitcoin momentum despite July jobs weakness.
Hormuz uncertainty → higher oil prices → higher energy inflation → Fed holds rates longer → rate cuts pushed to 2027 → Bitcoin loses momentum to real yield competition.
Any negotiated deal that restores predictable oil flows removes the inflation concern. With inflation eased, the Fed gains room to cut rates sooner. Bitcoin rallies on rate cut clarity.
Watch Hormuz news alongside your crypto charts. Good news = crypto bullish. Escalation = crypto pullback likely. This geopolitical risk is now directly tied to Fed policy and your portfolio.
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