Rate hike (hawkish): Bitcoin tested $60K. Holds steady (neutral): Bitcoin consolidates at $64Kâ$66K. Rate cut (dovish): Bitcoin rallies past $70K.
Release: 8:30 a.m. ET. Expected to show cooling inflation, but shelter costs may stay sticky. A surprise high print tilts Fed toward rate hikes.
Producer prices (wholesale inflation). Follow CPI lead: if CPI soft, PPI likely soft too. Together they show whether inflation truly moderates or just paused.
CME FedWatch tracks rate odds in real-time. As of Aug 11, markets price ~60% odds of a hold, ~30% rate hike, ~10% cut. CPI will shift these odds dramatically.
Soft CPI + hold signal = long Bitcoin above $64,500. Hot CPI + hike signal = short Bitcoin below $62,500. Wait for data clarity; don't guess the Fed.
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