Bitcoin fell from $1,000 to $300 during QT. When the Fed paused rate hikes in mid-2016, Bitcoin rallied to $1,000 then $13,000 by end-2017. Ethereum launched and went $1 to $1,400.
Fed slashed rates to zero and launched unlimited QE in March 2020. Bitcoin went $4K to $69K. Altcoins exploded: Aave $100 to $1,800, Curve $1 to $200. DeFi emerged as a new asset class.
Easing cycles follow a pattern: Bitcoin rallies first (narrative momentum), then DeFi altcoins (yield play), then emerging L1s and narratives (risk-taking peaks). Each wave takes 2-4 months.
If rates cut in September: DeFi rallies Oct-Nov (Wave 1), RWA/L2s rally Dec-Jan (Wave 2), speculative altcoins rally Feb-May 2027 (Wave 3). Bitcoin dominance could fall from 53% to 30%.
Focus on Tier-1: Aave, Uniswap, Curve, Arbitrum, Optimism. These benefit from falling money-market yields. Hold Bitcoin—it's the base. Rotate into alts only after dominance breaks below 50%.
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