macro
02

What the Fed Actually Did

The FOMC kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. No cut. No hike yet. But the door is open for future increases if inflation stays elevated.

macro
03

Why Expectations Flipped

Early 2026: Markets expected rate cuts. Mid-2026: Inflation stuck above 2%, Iran conflict spiked energy prices. Now: Traders price rate hikes instead.

macro
04

The Headwind for Bitcoin

Higher rates make cash more attractive. 5% yield on Treasury bills competes with Bitcoin's zero yield. This makes crypto less attractive during tightening cycles.

macro
05

The Silver Lining

If the Fed hikes, it means employment is strong and inflation is real. Bitcoin's narrative shifts from 'risk asset' to 'inflation hedge' and 'sound money'.

macro
06

What to Watch

Inflation reports this week will show if 2026 hikes actually happen. Watch energy prices and wage growth. These determine whether the Fed stays hard line.

macro
07

Verdict: Patience Over Volatility

In a rising-rate environment, Bitcoin rewards long-term conviction over short-term trading. Stick to your thesis, ignore the daily volatility.

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