macro
02

Rates Stayed at 3.50%–3.75%

The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in July. The majority preferred to 'skip' — pause to watch inflation data before any move (hike or cut).

macro
03

Why Did They Dissent?

Core inflation accelerated to 3.3% in June (from 3.0% in December). Some Fed officials see stickiness above the 2% target and want to 'stay restrictive longer' to cool demand.

macro
04

Market Now Expects 1–2 Hikes by Year-End

Before the dissent, markets priced in rate cuts by Q4. The July dissent shifted expectations to one or two 25-basis-point increases before December 2026.

macro
05

Crypto's Enemy: Higher Rates

Bitcoin and Ethereum don't yield interest. When rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding crypto goes up. Higher rate odds = headwinds for crypto valuations.

macro
06

The Data Will Decide

If this week's CPI and PCE data show inflation cooling faster, the dissent could fade. If inflation stays sticky, more dissenters could emerge at the September meeting.

Read More →