Crypto moves in 4-year cycles tied to the Bitcoin halving. In June 2026, we're in the LATE BULL phase. The top historically comes 12–18 months post-halving. Here's the map.
1. Accumulation: bottom, despair, smart money buys (2022–23). 2. Markup: the bull run, FOMO builds (2024–26, NOW). 3. Distribution: euphoric top, smart money sells (2021 was $69K). 4. Markdown: bear market, -70–85% (2022).
BTC above 200-day MA. ~14 months post-halving. Fear & Greed at 52 (Neutral — NOT euphoric yet). Altcoin season not in full swing. Read: late markup phase. The euphoric blow-off top hasn't happened yet — possibly ahead in H2 2026.
In the bull phase (now): hold core positions, DCA cautiously, START setting profit-taking targets. Add quality altcoins early. As euphoria builds, take profits in tranches. Be fearful when others get greedy.
Cycle top signs: Fear & Greed pinned at 90+, parabolic price, crypto on every front page, worthless tokens 10x-ing, MVRV above 7, BTC dominance crashing. When several align — take profits. Don't try to catch the exact peak.
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