macro
02

Consensus Expectations

Headline CPI: 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% prior). Core CPI: 3.1% YoY (vs. 3.1% prior). Market is betting on inflation stability or decline. Any surprise higher hurts Bitcoin's breakout hopes.

macro
03

The Dovish Trade

If CPI prints below 2.9% (surprise to the downside), Bitcoin rallies hard. Target: $67K-$68K by August 15. Ethereum follows into $2,100+ territory, triggering altseason FOMO.

macro
04

The Hawkish Risk

If CPI prints above 3.1% (surprise to the upside), Fed pause scenario breaks. Bitcoin drops to $62K-$63K support. Rate-cut odds collapse, and risk assets suffer immediate losses.

macro
05

What To Do Right Now

Don't FOMO. Wait for the data release and first 30-minute candle reaction. Split your position: 50% deployed, 50% dry powder to buy any post-CPI dip. FOMC minutes hit August 20—don't flip until then.

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