MVRV compares market value to realized value (what traders actually paid). At 1.21, the market has repriced 21% above cost, a healthy markup. Historically, readings above 2.0 precede crashes; readings near 1.0 mark capitulation buys.
Eight of twelve capitulation signals fired as of August 12, and long-term holders shed 356k BTC in 30 days. This whale profit-taking, paired with moderate MVRV, shows smart money taking profits—not panic or all-in greed.
The data suggests Bitcoin can test $80K without overheating. Risk/reward stays favorable as long as support at $76,450 holds. A daily close above that level keeps the rally intact.
October 2025's peak drawdown is now 10 months old. Bitcoin historically transitions to accumulation Sept–Nov after such declines. Current metrics align with that timing—a constructive setup heading into Q4 2026.
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