The Bitcoin halving of April 2024 cut new BTC supply in half. Now 14 months later — what has actually happened? Here's the real update on price, miners, and the cycle.
April 2024 halving: BTC ~$63,000. December 2024: BTC hit new all-time high of $108,000 (+71%). June 2026: BTC at $65,700 (currently in a consolidation after the all-time high). The halving worked exactly as past cycles predicted — supply shock drove the bull run.
After the halving, block reward dropped from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Only the most efficient miners survive. Miner revenue now depends heavily on transaction fees (which spike during high demand). Hash rate is still at all-time highs — miners are profitable but operating on tighter margins.
2016 halving → cycle top 17 months later. 2020 halving → cycle top 18 months later (Nov 2021). 2024 halving → cycle top expected Sept-Oct 2025 or later. We're at month 14. If history holds, we may be approaching but not yet at the final top.
Key signals that the cycle top is forming: BTC dominance crashing (altcoin mania), Fear & Greed pinned above 85, parabolic price action, extreme mainstream media coverage. When these align, start taking profits. Until then: hold the plan and monitor.
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