Bitcoin launched with 50 BTC per block. April 2012: halved to 25 BTC. July 2016: halved to 12.5 BTC. May 2020: halved to 6.25 BTC. April 2024: halved to 3.125 BTC. April 2028: will halve to 1.5625 BTC. By 2140, the reward reaches zero and mining stops.
When mining rewards cut, miners' profit margins compress unless BTC price rises. Marginal miners shut down. Supply suddenly drops 50%. Demand remains constant. Result: price climbs 3-12 months after the halving. Every halving has preceded a 5-20x bull run within 12-18 months.
April 2024 halving = June 2024 low (₹35 lakh). Today (Aug 2026) BTC = ₹40 lakh. History says: Next 12 months = 5-10x rally to ₹2,00,000-4,00,000. April 2028 halving = even bigger shortage. Institutional money will front-run this supply crunch.
If US recession hits hard (probability: 30%), even halving supply won't support price. If Fed cuts rates to 0% and pumps ₹100,000 crores in stimulus, halving + QE = ₹5-10 lakh BTC. Macro > halving in crashes, but halving = tail-risk hedge.
Buy 5% of portfolio allocation in BTC 18 months before halving (September 2026 for April 2028 halving). Expect 5-10x within 18 months. Sell 50% at 5x profit, hold remainder for 10x lottery. Repeat every 4 years.
Read More →