April 19, 2024: Bitcoin's 4th halving. Block reward: 6.25 → 3.125 BTC. BTC price at halving: $63,000. Price now (June 2026): $67,900. The full 2-year post-halving story — what happened, what didn't, and what the data says about the next phase.
April 2024 halving → October 2024 (6 months): BTC rose from $63K to $73K (+16%). Then breakthrough: spot ETF cumulative flows hit $20B. BTC surged. December 2024: BTC hit $108,364 — all-time high, +72% from halving price. January–June 2026: correction and consolidation to $63,800–$70,000 range. Post-halving pattern: the peak came faster than previous cycles (8 months vs 12–18 months) because ETF demand pulled forward the bull run.
The halving cut mining revenue by 50% overnight. Who survived: large-scale miners with sub-$30K production costs (Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark). Who struggled: smaller operations with high energy costs. By June 2026: total Bitcoin hashrate hit 900 EH/s (all-time record) — suggesting the mining industry fully adapted. Higher hashrate = more competition = lower per-miner revenue but stronger network security. Miners are running profitably at current prices.
Post-halving supply vs demand math: New BTC per day: 450 BTC ($30.6M at $68K). Spot ETF daily demand (June 2026): ~$160M. Demand exceeds new supply by 5.2x. This math doesn't change until the next halving (April 2028). As long as ETF inflows remain positive, the demand-to-supply imbalance creates structural upward pressure. This is the strongest post-halving supply argument in Bitcoin history.
Two years post-halving: MVRV at 2.1 (not a top). NUPL at 0.52 (Belief, not Euphoria). LTH accumulating at records. Exchange reserves at 6-year lows. Most on-chain analysts say mid-cycle, not late-cycle. Path to next ATH: $68,500 → $70K → $73K → $80K → $100K → new ATH. Timeline: conservative — Q4 2026 to Q1 2027. The 2024 halving supply shock is still working its way through the market. Patience is the strategy.
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