When inflation falls, bonds rally and real yields rise. Bonds compete with crypto for risk-on capital. Bitcoin benefits from rate CUTS, not from stable inflation. The inflation story is secondary now. Fed policy timing is primary.
Fed's next meeting is September 17–18. Markets are pricing a 65% chance of a 25bp cut. If that materializes, Bitcoin has historically rallied. If the Fed holds or signals caution, crypto could struggle to break higher despite good inflation data.
Bitcoin at $64K has support below and resistance at $66–68K. Ethereum holding $1,900 with resistance at $2,000–2,100. These levels matter more than macro headlines this week. A Fed-friendly narrative is required to break higher.
Russia's crypto approval, SEC vote Friday, and persistent Middle East tensions create multiple news catalysts. Any major headline could override macro momentum, either directionally positive or negative, in the next 72 hours.
Fed speakers (Barkin, Powell comments if any), equity-market closes on Fed-sensitive stocks (Treasuries, tech), and Bitcoin's hold of technical support. Inflation data was neutral—macro clarity comes from the Fed, not CPI.
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