Bitcoin has rejected from $65,000â$65,500 multiple times in early August. Traders call this a 'false breakout' pattern. For the rally to be real, BTC needs a daily close above $66,000 on above-average volume. That level has caught sellers every bounce.
The July Consumer Price Index came in at 3.5% headline, below the 3.8% forecast. This cools inflation fears and reduces Fed rate-hike odds from 55% to 40% overnight. Softer inflation equals Fed pause coming, which means risk assets rally. That's why Bitcoin spiked.
If Bitcoin breaks $66,000 and holds, the next targets are $68,000 (former swing high), $69,900 (200-day moving average), and $70,000 (psychological resistance). Each level is 2% to 6% away. Clearing all three signals a confirmed bull move into September.
This is a one-day rally on a single data point. If wage growth surprises hot, geopolitical shocks spike oil, or Fed speakers turn hawkish, Bitcoin could slip below $64,000. Watch Personal Income data on Friday for wage trends and clues on inflation stickiness.
Key catalysts this week: Personal Income (Friday), crude oil trends, Fed speakers. Core PCE arrives next Tuesday. A cluster of soft data solidifies the Fed pivot narrative and opens room for $70K and beyond. Hot data reverses the rally quickly.
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