Major Bitcoin bear markets typically last 12-18 months from peak to trough. At the six-month mark, past cycles were still grinding lower before any sustained recovery. Current timeline suggests potential extension into late 2026 or early 2027.
Past capitulation phases show three hallmarks: extreme investor despair (measured by MVRV ratio compression), forced selling exhaustion (inflow plateaus), and then a bottoming period where price bases before recovery gains.
Crypto has declined 4-5% since the Middle East tensions escalated in late February 2026. De-escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs often precede relief rallies, suggesting macro risk-off conditions may persist until geopolitical pressure eases.
Price alone cannot signal a bottom in real time. On-chain metrics (whale movement, long-term holder accumulation, exchange inflows) combined with derivatives positioning and macro conditions are required to distinguish real bottoms from false bounces.
Inflation data due Wednesday will shape near-term direction. If CPI cools, risk-on sentiment may build. If sticky inflation persists, crypto may remain under selling pressure as tight financial conditions persist.
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